Prediction markets are defined as the markets that are designed and run for the primary purpose of
- mining and aggregating scattered among players information and
- subsequently use of this information in market values in order to make predictions about specific future events.
Some early fruits of my work on this emerging research topic, which consists the core of my PhD dissertation, are
- Prediction Markets: Aspects on Transforming a Business Game into a Valuable Information Aggregation Tool, presented at the 3rd Future Business Technology Conference, 17-19 April 2006, Athens, Greece
- Prediction Markets: An Information Aggregation Perspective to the Forecasting Problem, World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management & Sustainable Development
- Prediction Markets as Decision Support Tool for Supply Chain Management, 2nd National Conference of Mechanical & Electrical Engineers, 16-18 May 2007, Athens, Greece (in greek)
Latest publication:
- Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review
- the review was accepted for publication in the inaugural issue of The Journal of Prediction Markets
- abstract:
This paper presents an attempt to study and monitor the evolution of research on prediction markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The former consists of 152 articles, published between 1991 and 2006. The results show that an increasing volume of PM research has been conducted in a very diverse range of areas. The articles are further classified and the results of this classification are presented, based on a scheme that consists of four main categories: description, theoretical work, applications, and law and politics. A comprehensive list of references concludes this literature review. It is the authors’ intention to provide an expedient source for anyone interested in PM research and motivate further interest.
- the references files are available here:
Drafts to be published, soon:
- A coherent price function for a dynamic pari-mutuel prediction market
- sets a framework of desirable properties for a coherent price function and
- presents a function that satisfies all these properties
Other stuff
A Web search engine focusing on content relevant to prediction markets (by me):
Blog + news roll on prediction markets and relevant keywords (by me):